A transiting temperate-subtropical mixed forest: carbon cycle projection and uncertainty

Abstract Terrestrial ecosystems respond to climate change in various ways, making it crucial improve our understanding of these dynamics and uncertainty projections. Here, we investigate how the species composition a temperate-subtropical mixed forest on Jeju Island, South Korea, would by 2099 analysed resultant effects phenological timings carbon flux using an individual cohort-based model—the ecosystem demography biosphere model version 2. We use analyses variance decompose contribution parameters (four sets) inputs global models under four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios) total leaf area index (LAI) net productivity (NEP) find that with increases temperature, photosynthetically active radiation, vapour pressure deficit, dominance subtropical will gradually increase approximately 11%, from 30.2% 2013 41.1% end this century, yet there was large variation projections depending parameter inputs. also show LAI length growing season resulting increased NEP at rate up 62.7 gC m −2 yr −1 per decade RCP8.5. The projection largely due (and its interaction inputs); however, is as emission scenario projection. This study highlights importance identifying sources for robust terrestrial cycle.